Analisis Faktor-Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Indikator Kesejahteraan Masyarakat di Kabupaten Karangasem

Abstract

The Human Development Index (HDI) combines achievements in health, education, and the capacity to attain a decent standard of living. Although Karangasem Regency index has risen, it continues to trail most regencies and municipalities in Bali. Three explanatory series are assessed: regional output (GRDP), educational attainment measured by MYS, and the poverty percentage. Their roles in Karangasem Regency HDI are estimated using secondary annual observations for 2011–2025 were obtained from Statistics Indonesia and estimated with multiple linear regression in SPSS 22. Diagnostic checks found no violation of normality, multicollinearity, heteroscedasticity, or autocorrelation. The predictors are jointly meaningful for HDI. Individually, GRDP and MYS have statistically meaningful positive coefficients, while the poverty coefficient is negative but lacks statistical support. The model's coefficient of determination is 0.985, accounting for 98.5 percent of HDI variation. Over the observation period, HDI movements were more closely associated with economic activity and educational attainment than with annual poverty fluctuations. Local action should therefore integrate inclusive economic expansion, continued schooling, and more precisely targeted poverty programs.