Model Estimasi Produksi Padi Menggunakan Analisis Regresi Data Panel Di Provinsi Sumatera Utara Berdasarkan Data Tahun 2015-2019

Abstract

Analysis of panel data regression is a regression method to determine the relationship between the independent variable and the dependent variable using combined data, namely between cross-section data and time-series data.Analysis of panel data regression can apply to the processing of rice production estimates for an area including the province of North Sumatera. North Sumatera is one of the provinces in Indonesia, at the very of the population focuses on the agricultural sector as the main livelihood in rice being the primary production. Based on data on the development of rice production at the Agriculture Office of North Sumatra Province, the level of rice production in 2019 for North Sumatra Province reached 4,693,563 Ton/Year.Throught Panel Data Regression Analysis with the three approach methods is Common Effect Model (CEM), Fixed Effect Model (FEM) and Random Effect Model (REM) , the best approach method is obtained, namely the Fixed Effect Model (FEM) with the best estimation model is . The coefficient of determination  of 0.950890, which means that the independent variable affects the dependent variable by 95.08% on rice production.Based on the estimation model, the development of rice production in the next 3 years, namely 2020, 2021 and 2022, has changes of around 39.88% (decrease), 10.68% (increase), 9.89% (increase).